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China

AllTrumpMidtermsGlobal ElectionsGov ShutdownEpsteinTexas SenatePrimariesChinaBrazilHungary ElectionSlovenia ElectionColombia ElectionGerman ElectionsVenezuelaCourtsUS ElectionTrade WarCongressMayoral ElectionsCabinetSenateIsraelCanada
All1.6KTrump290Midterms546Global Elections128Gov Shutdown6Epstein24Texas Senate6Primaries183China38Brazil15Hungary Election7Slovenia Election2Colombia Election6German Elections4Venezuela31Courts21US Election149Trade War8Congress41Mayoral Elections10Cabinet8Senate7Israel74Canada28

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

4%

chance

Yes

No

$41.2M Vol.

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

7%

chance

Yes

No

$3.3M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

12%

chance

Yes

No

$3.2M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

0%

chance

Yes

No

$2.1M Vol.

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

6%

chance

Yes

No

$1.4M Vol.

Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?

September 15<1%September 2383%September 2492%

$1.2M Vol.

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

2%

chance

Yes

No

$1.1M Vol.

China Annual GDP Growth 2026

4.0–5.0%

90%

YesNo

5.0–6.0%

6%

YesNo
+ 8 more

$900.1K Vol.

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

28%

chance

Yes

No

$465.5K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

7%

chance

Yes

No

$444.6K Vol.

Jimmy Lai released by...?

June 30, 2026<1%December 31, 20263%

$379.8K Vol.

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

3%

chance

Yes

No

$359.0K Vol.

Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

Alibaba

75%

YesNo

Moonshot

12%

YesNo
+ 9 more

$344.3K Vol.

China x India military clash by...?

June 30<1%December 31<1%December 31, 20267%

$330.6K Vol.

Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

Alibaba

18%

YesNo

Hesai

18%

YesNo
+ 8 more

$302.0K Vol.

US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

88%

chance

Yes

No

$248.2K Vol.

Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?

#3

26%

YesNo

#1

7%

YesNo

$238.4K Vol.

Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

Wang Yi2%Cai Qi5%Li Qiang1%

$211.1K Vol.

US x China Military clash before 2027?

5%

chance

Yes

No

$207.8K Vol.

Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?

12%

chance

Yes

No

$165.4K Vol.

China coup attempt before 2027?

4%

chance

Yes

No

$155.5K Vol.

Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by...?

June 30<1%December 3133%

$137.5K Vol.

Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?

1%

chance

Yes

No

$111.0K Vol.

Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

Z.ai

35%

YesNo

Moonshot

33%

YesNo
+ 9 more

$108.0K Vol.

Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?

4%

chance

Yes

No

$105.8K Vol.

Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?

June 30<1%July 31<1%September 302%

$97.7K Vol.

Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

DeepSeek

31%

YesNo

Xiaomi

16%

YesNo
+ 1 more

$85.3K Vol.

China Annual Inflation 2026

0.6 – 1.0%

58%

YesNo

0.1 – 0.5%

21%

YesNo
+ 7 more

$83.6K Vol.

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?

June 30, 2026<1%December 31, 202613%

$56.2K Vol.

People's Bank of China rate change by September 30?

No Change

95%

YesNo

Decrease

5%

YesNo
+ 1 more

$53.5K Vol.

Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ?

2%

chance

Yes

No

$49.8K Vol.

Xi meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by...?

June 30<1%July 31<1%August 31<1%

$47.4K Vol.

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

19%

chance

Yes

No

$46.4K Vol.

Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

Moonshot

41%

YesNo

Z.ai

31%

YesNo
+ 9 more

$41.3K Vol.

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?

4.3-4.6%

58%

YesNo

4.6-4.9%

25%

YesNo
+ 7 more

$36.1K Vol.

Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?

Z.ai

31%

YesNo

Moonshot

24%

YesNo
+ 9 more

$25.7K Vol.

Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?

25%

chance

Yes

No

$21.4K Vol.

Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?

Z.ai

35%

YesNo

Moonshot

32%

YesNo
+ 9 more

$14.8K Vol.

Best Chinese AI Company end of October?

Alibaba

50%

YesNo

Moonshot

25%

YesNo
+ 9 more

$12.7K Vol.

China ballistic missile launch by December 31?

16%

chance

Yes

No

$10.1K Vol.

Hu Jintao public appearance by December 31?

4%

chance

Yes

No

$6.2K Vol.

US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30?

10%

chance

Yes

No

$5.3K Vol.

Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?

12%

chance

Yes

No

$1.6K Vol.

September Inflation China - Annual

0.7% to 0.8%

43%

YesNo

0.9% to 1.0%

41%

YesNo
+ 3 more

$20 Vol.