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Brazil

All Trump Midterms Global Elections Gov Shutdown Epstein Texas Senate Primaries China Brazil Hungary Election Slovenia Election Colombia Election German Elections Venezuela Courts US Election Trade War Congress Mayoral Elections Cabinet Senate Israel Canada

All1.6K Trump290 Midterms546 Global Elections128 Gov Shutdown6 Epstein24 Texas Senate6 Primaries183 China38 Brazil15 Hungary Election7 Slovenia Election2 Colombia Election6 German Elections4 Venezuela31 Courts21 US Election149 Trade War8 Congress41 Mayoral Elections10 Cabinet8 Senate7 Israel74 Canada28

Brazil Presidential Election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

63%

Flávio Bolsonaro

24%

$116.2M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Flávio Bolsonaro

77%

Renan Santos

13%

$4.3M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Renan Santos

62%

Ronaldo Caiado

21%

$481.6K Vol.

Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

95%

Flavio Bolsonaro

85%

$439.9K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Lula da Silva 5-10%

41%

Lula da Silva 10-15%

20%

$297.5K Vol.

Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won

PL

71%

MDB

18%

$291.9K Vol.

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner

Eduardo Paes

94%

Douglas Ruas

3%

$270.0K Vol.

São Paulo Governor Election Winner

Tarcísio de Freitas

94%

Fernando Haddad

6%

$245.5K Vol.

Bank of Brazil decision in August?

25 bps decrease

87%

No Change

12%

$165.5K Vol.

Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?

97%

chance

Yes

No

$125.6K Vol.

Ceará Governor Election Winner

Ciro Gomes

70%

Elmano de Freitas

27%

$113.1K Vol.

Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner

Mateus Simões

26%

Cleitinho Azevedo

25%

$106.2K Vol.

Santa Catarina Governor Election Winner

Jorginho Mello

89%

João Rodrigues

7%

$101.5K Vol.

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

11%

chance

Yes

No

$100.8K Vol.

Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner

Luciano Zucco

62%

Juliana Brizola

36%

$88.5K Vol.

Bahia Governor Election Winner

Jerônimo Rodrigues

51%

ACM Neto

50%

$86.5K Vol.

Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?

3%

chance

Yes

No

$82.6K Vol.

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5.00-5.49%

39%

4.50-4.99%

27%

$77.5K Vol.

Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election Winner

PL

76%

UPB

21%

$58.0K Vol.

Paraíba Governor Election Winner

Lucas Ribeiro

71%

Cícero Lucena

19%

$35.8K Vol.

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

10%

chance

Yes

No

$30.2K Vol.

Paraná Governor Election Winner

Sergio Moro

82%

Guto Silva

4%

$29.3K Vol.

Bank of Brazil decision in September?

No Change

51%

25 bps decrease

48%

$28.9K Vol.

Pará Governor Election Winner

Dr. Daniel Santos

50%

Hana Ghassan

42%

$22.1K Vol.

Pernambuco Governor Election Winner

Raquel Lyra

56%

João Campos

45%

$20.9K Vol.

Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by...?

June 30<1%September 3024%December 3172%

$20.5K Vol.

Brazil GDP Growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ)?

0.3%–0.5%

61%

0.6%–0.8%

32%

$20.2K Vol.

Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Held

PL

83%

UNIÃO

9%

$19.0K Vol.

Maranhão Governor Election Winner

Eduardo Braide

75%

Orleans Brandão

22%

$18.7K Vol.

Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner

Ricardo Ferraço

63%

Lorenzo Pazolini

35%

$12.9K Vol.

Goiás Governor Election Winner

Daniel Vilela

86%

Wilder Morais

14%

$3.0K Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30?

24%

chance

Yes

No

$2.6K Vol.

Will USD/BRL hit __ in 2026?

↑5.5

33%

↓4.5

30%

$838 Vol.